Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
