Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
